"Where will you be when the oil runs out?
And What are the possible scenarios for avoiding madness and mayhem?"
Richard Heinberg, Power Down

The Peak Oil Crisis

Since oil is a finite resource, the world production will reach a peak at some point in time. This point has become known as Peak Oil from the predictions made by M. King Hubbert in 1956. The production of oil in the world follows a "bell shaped curve". It is the point at which the world's production of conventional oil reaches a peak after which production begins to decline, i.e. the top of the curve.  While they are not sure when this worldwide peak will occur, Geologists have no doubt that this will happen. Predictions range from 2006 to 2025 or later.

"If the actions—rather than the words—of the oil business’s major players provide the best gauge of how they see the future, then ponder the following. Crude oil prices have doubled since 2001, but oil companies have increased their budgets for exploring new oil fields by only a small fraction. Likewise, U.S. refineries are working close to capacity, yet no new refinery has been constructed since 1976. And oil tankers are fully booked, but outdated ships are being decommissioned faster than new ones are being built."
Mark Williams M.I.T.'s TechnologyReview.com

Please note that the peak occurred in the United States in 1970-1971, just as predicted by Hubbert in the 1960s.

Once production starts to decline, the gap between the demand and the supply will grow. If one assumes a 5% annual growth in the gap between the demand and supply, then ten years after the peak, we would need to substitute nearly one half the oil that we use today. That is roughly 10 to 15 million barrels per day.

Another quote (from Out of Gas, David Goodstein) puts this into perspective:

"In fact, if we put our minds to it, we could start trying to kick the fossil fuel habit now, protecting the planet's climate from further damage and preserving the fuels for future generations as the source of chemical goods. Ninety percent of the organic chemicals we use - pharmaceuticals, agricultural chemicals, plastics - are made from petroleum; there are better uses for the stuff than burning it up. To make such an about-face will require global political leadership that is both visionary and courageous. It seems unlikely that we will be so lucky."

 

The issue of Peak Oil is similar to the issue of terrorism, in the sense that it will not go away. As our supply of oil becomes more critical the vulnerability to attack increases dramatically.  Our supplies (ships, pipelines and oil rigs), on-loading and off-loading ports and refining facilities become critical targets.

One way of decreasing our vulnerability is to decrease our dependence on oil in a variety of ways. The less dependent we are as a society the less damage a disruption in the supply will cause. One of the ways we can start to become less dependent on oil is to educate ourselves about the problem and learn about potential solutions. There is much more that can be done beside buying a new $25,000 hybrid car (which is not a bad step if you can afford it).

Terrorism and Peak Oil

John Abraham, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., made the following comment about the terrorists that we are facing today:

"Terrorists are using logic to trade off how they're going to accomplish their goal, which is to create chaos."

While our water supplies are potential targets, so are our energy supplies. Everything from our electrical transmission lines to our refineries and oil off-loading facilities. As noted in the Hirsch Study,

Further, the peak oil crisis might well be exacerbated by the threat of terrorism (as noted in the Hirsch Study):

• World oil production peaking is occurring now or will happen soon.

• Middle East reserves are much less than stated.

• Terrorism stays at current levels or increases and concentrates on damaging oil production, transportation, refining and distribution.

• Political instability in major oil producing countries results in unexpected, sustained world-scale oil shortages.

• Market signals and terrorism delay the realization of peaking, delaying the initiation of mitigation.

• Large-scale, sustained Middle East political instability hinders oil production.

• Consumers demand even larger, less fuel-efficient cars and SUVs.

• Expansion of energy production is hindered by increasing environmental challenges, creating shortages beyond just liquid fuels.

The following books are excellent resources to learn more about this impending crisis. The authors discuss the issues and provide possible solutions. They also include practical things that you can do to both help and mitigate the harm to you and your family. I highly recommend all of these books as a first step in educating yourself. Purchase at least one of them today and start to become part of the solution!!